The Kliff, the Bad, and the Murray
The Cardinals had a really ugly 2018-2019 football season. By comparison, their start to the offseason hasn’t been quite as unsightly. Arizona snatched up the coveted Kliff “Score 50, lose by 14” Kingsbury from the clutches of college football. Arizona hired Kingsbury from USC, who offered him an offensive coordinator position after the coach parted ways with his alma mater, Texas Tech. With a new coach and the #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft, the Cardinals are looking to improve on their 3-13 record. Things appear to be looking up in Phoenix. How worse could things really get?
Last year, the Cardinals traded the 15th overall pick, a third round, and a fifth round pick to Oakland for the 10th overall pick. They used this pick to select Josh Rosen, the three year starter from UCLA. Many analysts called this move the steal of the draft. The Cardinals were able to get one of the four highly touted quarterbacks of the 2018 draft class at the cost of a third and a fifth round pick. However, it appears that the organization might already be willing to move on from their highest drafted quarterback since Matt Leinhart in 2006 (also the 10th overall pick).
Yes, new head coach Kingsburg has a long and documented love affair with Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray. He recruited the prospect to Texas A&M, where he served as the quarterbacks coach before taking the head coaching gig at Texas Tech. His gushing praise of Murray to the media has been nothing short of distasteful, like flirting with the waitress at your anniversary dinner. Down Kliff, you dog, you already have a quarterback.
However, we do know that NFL prospect evaluation is flawed science. Less like physics and more like meteorology. Sometimes it’s right, sometimes it’s wrong. No one (no reasonable person) ever gets mad at the weatherman for calling it as he sees it. Every year, some players slip through the cracks and outperform their draft stock. The only metric that can accurately calculate the trajectory of a prospect’s career is hindsight. The saying goes, “Hindsight is 20/20.” Indeed, after the dust has settled, it is much easier to tell which players were worth their draft pick. Unfortunately, the Cardinals do not have the luxury of time. They have the luxury of a high draft pick. They have put themselves in a scenario where their organization must pick between two very young, talented quarterbacks. Here is what they should keep in mind:
Rookie Quarterbacks Struggle
Rookie quarterbacks typically struggle during their transition from college football to the NFL. The game moves so much faster at the professional level. Most young quarterbacks must improve their anticipation, their precision, and their ability to process the field mentally. In addition, some plays that a quarterback could get away with in college do not work against veteran NFL defenses. The combination of these factors can result in the boneheaded decisions we typically see from rookie quarterbacks. Rookie quarterbacks also have to learn entirely new offensive schemes. Even if they ran a pro-style offense in college, young quarterbacks will have to master the terminology and preferences of their new offensive coordinator. The bottom line is: Rookie quarterbacks almost always struggle – Look up Peyton Manning and Brett Favre’s rookies numbers. Not great. Josh Rosen had a rough rookie year. That doesn’t mean he couldn’t turn out to be a franchise player. The Cardinals had many problems last season and not all of them were issues Josh Rosen could control. Which brings me to my next point…
Young NFL quarterbacks must improve their anticipation, their precision, and their ability to process the field mentally.
The Cardinals Were VERY Bad Last Year
The Cardinals were one of the worst teams in the NFL last year. Offensively, they finished last in the league in total passing (2,523) and rushing yards (1,342). Their defense wasn’t much better either. The Cardinals gave up more rushing yards per game (155) than any other team in the NFL. A wet sponge might have been better at stopping the run than Arizona’s defense. The team also gave up an average of 27 points per game — a seemingly insurmountable number when your offense only averages 14 points a game.
The only bright spots on the Cardinals were its pass defense and punt team. The Patrick Peterson led secondary held opponents to an average of 204 yards per game (4th best in the NFL). Not too shabby at all. However, Andy Lee (Cardinals punter) was absolutely dominant. Lee-Man punted over 4,500 yards on the season and averaged an NFL best 48.6 yards a punt! Lee’s 2018 season was one of the top-25 best seasons by a punter in NFL history. Your team is probably in shambles if your punter punts for 2,000 more yards than your quarterback passes.
The Cardinals also had one of the worst offensive lines in professional football. The entire starting offensive line managed to find itself replaced or on the IR by early December. For the rest of the season, this position group was a revolving door of whatever big knuckleheads the team could find. I’ve seen greater resistance from grade school Red Rover lines. This offensive line was less effective than a New Orleans’ levee. I am sure Josh Rosen finished his rookie season with a new perspective of the NFL –from his back. Rookie quarterbacks aren’t made of leather. You don’t need to break them in. Rosen didn’t have any help out there. You can only heave the ball up for Larry Fitzgerald so many times…
Josh Rosen is Injury Prone
As a UCLA fan, I feel uniquely qualified to evaluate Rosen’s ability to be a successful NFL quarterback. He was the first true freshman to start at quarterback for the Bruins. He has fantastic footwork and throws a beautiful deep ball. He also took A LOT of punishment as a quarterback at UCLA. He had AT LEAST one diagnosed concussion. However, it wasn’t uncommon to see his head bounce off the turf multiple times a game. There was also that time where three Arizona St. defensive players ground his shoulder into talcum powder on a gang-tackle. In that game alone, Rosen took 16 quarterback hits. The final hit injured the quarterback’s shoulder and sidelined him for the remainder of his sophomore year. Arizona St. isn’t known for having a particularly imposing defense. Thank god, UCLA never played a defense like Alabama’s while Rosen was there. The poor guy would be eating Jell-O out of a tube for the rest of his life. Rosen has a lot of upside, but he has already put plenty of mileage on his body.
Alex Smith – Quarterbacks can take a while to find their stride
Quarterbacks can take a while to find their stride. Alex Smith struggled for years in San Francisco before he developed into reliable starting quarterback. Smith didn’t have a positive touchdown to interception ratio until his fourth year in the league. Aaron Rodgers had the luxury of sitting behind Brett Favre while he acclimated to the pace of the NFL. If the Cardinals weren’t willing to give Rosen the length of his rookie contract to develop, why the hell did they trade up to draft him??? They could have stayed where they were in the draft and kept their third and fifth rounders. It truly baffles me. If I were to pull back the curtains in the Arizona GM’s office would I see three monkeys, standing on each other’s shoulders, pulling the levers to control Steve Keim? I think that might be a best-case scenario.
Don’t Let Kliff Kingsbury Run Your Franchise – But isn’t that what they hired him to do? No!
Where did Kingsbury get the nerve to bully the Cardinals brass into drafting Murray? And how is it WORKING? The Cardinals front office look like a group of six graders that just let the new second grader take their lunch money. He might be a big second grader, but c’mon, you guys rule elementary school. Kingsburg shouldn’t even be allowed to speak at franchise meetings. Not only is he unqualified for the job he currently occupies, but he was also fired from his last head-coaching gig for being an abject failure. Texas Tech was his alma mater and they canned him! Not even the best college coaches make it in the NFL. Chip Kelly, Nick Saban, Steve Spurrier, Lou Holtz, Greg Schiao, etc. couldn’t make it and they are all much better coaches than Kingsbury. I also can’t think of any coaches with mediocre collegiate level careers, who then went on to have incredible success in the NFL.
Kingsbury has proven he can do two things really well: develop elite quarterback talent and score points. Understanding of every other facet of the game eludes Kingsbury, especially defense. Kliff Kingsbury’s patented defensive solution is to score more points on offense. Texas Tech had one of the most porous defenses in the country throughout Kingsbury’s tenure as head coach. As previously stated, Arizona’s defense is very bad. The team desperately needs players that can stop the run. They should use their #1 overall pick to get an elite defensive playmaker. Nick Bosa and Josh Allen are both excellent choices. However, if Kliff gets his way, the Cardinals will draft Murray. Then we’ll see another iteration of Kingsbury’s “offense is the best defense strategy.” If the roof is leaking, you don’t stop the basement from flooding by making the ground floor more water resistant. Murray might turn out to be a great NFL quarterback, but he will have more or less the same empty cupboard of a team that Rosen inherited. I expect to see lots of Kyler Murray running for his life highlights.
Three Draft Day Scenarios
These are the three most likely draft day scenarios for the Arizona Cardinals:
The Cardinals Draft Kyler Murray and Trade Josh Rosen
Kliff gets his way and the Cardinals draft Murray with the first overall pick in the draft. This is what all the analysts are predicting and seems to be where the Cardinals are leaning. If Rosen is traded before the draft, this scenario is almost guaranteed. The Cardinals will not get half the value they invested in Rosen through a trade. Current estimates project Rosen would likely fetch a third round pick. The quarterback-needy Redskins might even manage to low-ball them. That would be sad on so many levels. The Redskins NEED a quarterback after two of their three quarterbacks got the wishbone treatment in almost consecutive weeks. However, the Cardinals might NEED to get rid of Rosen more badly than the Redskins need to acquire a quarterback. You could say that drafting Murray could come at the value of two first round picks and a fifth rounder (the third rounders cancel out through the projected Rosen trade). Hope it works out for ya!
The Cardinals Draft a Defensive Player
The unsexy, fix the leak kind of pick. Nick Bosa would provide an immediate spark to a defense that can’t stop the run to save its life. Josh Allen is a fantastic linebacker that could do wonders against the run AND the pass. You really can’t go wrong with either of them. This is the safest, most logical decision for the Cardinals organization. No sunk costs whatsoever. It also puts Kliffy-boy in his place and shows him who runs the franchise. Maybe all Rosen needs is another offseason of hard work and some face time with one of the best quarterback whisperers in football?
The Cardinals Fool Everyone and Trade Out of the #1 Spot For a King’s Ransom
This is a truly diabolical, Game of Thrones style scheme. I don’t think the Cardinals have the cojones or the cunning needed to devise such a dastardly plot, but I would LOVE to see it happen. The idea behind this theory, is that the Cardinals organization have purposefully driven up the draft stock of Kyler Murray, hoping that some sucker (probably the Dolphins) will trade a war chest of assets to them for the right to draft him #1 overall. They will then use the assets acquired from the trade to put their rebuild way ahead of schedule. This is certainly plausible. Murray was never on anyone’s radar as a potential #1 pick until Kingsbury gushed about the quarterback in a TV interview…
Realistically, the Cardinals would only need three people onboard to make this plan a success: the owner, the GM, Kingsbury. Rosen might not even know. Keeping Rosen out of the loop could be a mechanism to sell the ploy better. His genuine malcontent would make it easier to peddle this false narrative to the media. Plus, Rosen’s got a big mouth and might not be the greatest actor.
The repercussions from such a trade would be enormous. The well of good faith would be poisoned for years to come. No one would want any part of a trade involving Arizona. That doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be worth it or hilarious. Nuking their own reputation like this to get ahead would probably even impress Bill Belichick.
There has been much intrigue with regard to the Cardinals offseason. I hope the intrigue comes to a satisfying fruition when the Cardinals punk the entire NFL by trading down from the first pick. However, I expect the Cardinals will do exactly what they’ve been implying they will do – draft Kyler Murray. As I’ve said before, hope it works out for ya!
