Josh Rosen and the Art of the (Raw) Deal

Josh Rosen was a can’t miss quarterback prospect coming out of the hottest football talent pool in the country. He was destined to play on Sundays before he ever took a snap at the collegiate level. Leading up to the 2018 NFL Draft, the UCLA product was considered one of the top quarterbacks available. Yet, two seasons into his pro career, Rosen is fighting to stay in the league. Rosen continues to look for stability in his fledgling career while every other first round quarterback from the 2018 draft has developed into a franchise player for their respective organization. His production on the field has been horrendous. Rosen has thrown 12 TDs to 19 picks over two seasons and his career completion percentage sits just below 55%. He has also taken 61 sacks in two seasons (including a 45 sack season his rookie year — what a beating) and fumbled the ball 11 times. Describing his production as horrendous may have been an understatement. 

As a result of his poor play, Rosen’s trade value has plummeted. A trade involving the former top-10 pick now would be lucky to fetch a fifth round pick. The Dolphins no longer include Rosen in their long term plans and intend to take a quarterback in this year’s draft. This all comes after the Dolphins sent a second and fifth round pick to Arizona for Rosen last year — a trade that was considered a bargain for Miami at the time. 

Two seasons into his professional career and TWO teams have already kicked Josh Rosen to the curb. He’s had three offensive coordinators in two years and spent two seasons playing for bottom-5 teams. With the Fins set to draft another quarterback, all signs point to Rosen starting next season on his third team in three seasons, which begs the question:

Has a first round quarterback in the modern era (2000-present) ever gotten as raw of a deal as Josh Rosen? The contenders: 

JaMarcus Russell (‘07)

• Drafted with the 1st overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft by the Raiders.
• Played three seasons with the Raiders before he was released by the team. JaMarcus was never claimed off the waivers and his professional career ended in 2009.
• Struggled with his weight through his career and showed up to training camp reportedly 65 lbs over his playing weight. Earned him the nickname JaWalrus Russell.
• Frequently considered one of the biggest draft busts in NFL history.

Blaine Gabbert (‘11)

• Drafted with the 10th overall pick (same as Rosen) in the 2011 NFL Draft by the Jaguars.
• Played three seasons with the Jaguars before he was traded to San Francisco.
• Played under three different head coaches while in Jacksonville.
• Sacked 62 times over his first two seasons (worse than Rosen’s 61)
• Gabbert’s 2011 rookie season was at the time the fifth worst season by a quarterback in terms of aggregate value. 
• Frequently injured early in his career due to the offensive line’s inability to protect him.

Brandon Weeden (‘12)

• Drafted with the 22nd overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft by the Browns.
• Played two seasons with the Browns before he was released and signed by the Cowboys.
• Oldest player ever taken in the first round of an NFL Draft at the age of 28.
• Sacked 55 times in his first two seasons.
• Threw for 3,385 yards as a rookie and posted a 14-17 TD-INT ratio, which frankly, isn’t too bad. Production halved the following season after he was injured and replaced by Brian Hoyer.

Johnny Manziel (‘14)

• Drafted with the 22nd overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft by the Browns.
• Played two seasons with the Browns before being released by the team for issues off the field.
• Poor work ethic in college followed him to the NFL where he could no longer lean on his athleticism and improvisation skill.
• Notable off the field incidents included: Abandoning his team to party in Las Vegas while in concussion protocol and an investigation for domestic abuse.
• Ex-wife and Instagram model Bre Tiesi cheated on a half marathon for charity. Claims to have run the last 6.7 miles at a consistent 4 minute mile pace. The fastest mile time ever run by a woman was 4 minutes and 12 seconds.  

Paxton Lynch (‘16)

• Drafted with the 26th overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft by the Broncos.
• Played two seasons with the Broncos before being released in the middle of his third season. He signed with Seahawks after spending the remainder of the 2018 season as a free agent.
• Has never played more than 3 games in a season.

No first round quarterback in the modern era of the NFL (2000-present) has been given up on as quickly as Josh Rosen. Not even JaMarcus Russell, who received THREE whole years of grace from the Raiders before he was cut loose. With the exception of Rosen, every quarterback that has been drafted in the first round since 2000 has spent at least two years on the roster of the team that drafted them. The vast majority of the quarterbacks drafted in the first round have spent three years on their first team’s roster. Those that spent less than three were unique cases. Manziel was plagued by issues off the field. Weeden was beaten up and 30 years old by the end of his second year. Paxton Lynch was drafted too early due to John Elway’s obsession with freakishly tall quarterbacks (Brock Osweiler: 6’7, Paxton Lynch: 6’7, Joe Flacco: 6’6) and was exposed when the team brought in outside competition. 

From the analysis above, the quarterback whose early career best mirrors Rosen’s is Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert and Rosen were both taken with the 10th overall pick in their respective drafts. They were both prematurely thrust into starting roles for terrible teams and their development was stunted due to coaching turnover. Their sack totals through their first two seasons are nearly identical (Rosen’s 61 to Gabbert’s 62). We will never know how good Gabbert could have been had he been drafted by a more competent organization. When Gabbert finally left the Jaguars in 2014, he was damaged goods. He left Jacksonville after suffering a foot injury, a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder, an elbow contusion, a broken thumb, a laceration on his right hand (that required 15 stitches), and a hamstring injury. Admittedly, the comparison of Rosen to Gabbert does not inspire optimism for Rosen’s future. Rosen, like Gabbert, could easily wind up being another tale of “what if.” The positive side of the Gabbert comparison is that Gabbert is still in the league. After all the beatings he took in Jacksonville, Blaine has still managed to carve out a role for himself in the NFL as a serviceable backup. This is mostly likely the ceiling of Rosen’s trajectory. However, despite taking just as many sacks as Gabbert did early in his career, Rosen has managed to emerge far more intact. He had his share of injuries in college (concussions, throwing shoulder injury), but he has been remarkably durable thus far in the NFL. This was one of the major concerns that caused Rosen to slide on draft day.

Rosen can still become a good starting quarterback in this league. He is young and there still is time. However, he needs to be paired with a great organization that is willing to develop him. He also needs to be coachable. One of the biggest knocks against him in high school and college was his arrogance. Trent Dilfer famously described Rosen as “a jerk” after working with him at the Elite 11 quarterback camp before his freshman year at UCLA. I think everything Rosen has been through in his NFL career thus far has certainly humbled him. He displayed a great deal of maturity when he was traded from Arizona, a trait that was sorely lacking during his time at UCLA. Personal improvement off the field can go a long way to improving performance on the field.

If anything was grossly overstated in Josh’s NFL scouting report it was the belief that he was ready to be a starter in the league on Day 1. His play on the field has made it abundantly clear that he is not ready to start in the National Football League. Rosen appears to be another casualty of the NFL’s trend towards the trial by fire for rookie quarterbacks. Rosen needs to sit a year or two in a stable environment. He needs to be mentored by an entrenched professional and work with a great quarterback staff. This will help him understand NFL offensive schemes and acclimate himself to the speed of the game at the professional level. Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Seattle, or San Francisco, could be great landing spots for Rosen. 

While there is still time, how much of it remains to be seen. Unfortunately, Josh is in a race against the clock. The narrative that he can be a starter in the NFL has flipped and he is fighting an uphill battle. Every year that passes introduces a new pool of enticing young quarterback talent to the league. It’s a dog eat dog world out there and even more so in the NFL. It remains to be seen how Josh Rosen will respond to the adversity he’s faced early in his career, but he’s certainly gotten one of the rawest deals in NFL history thus far.