The Sick Man of the NCAA

With over 500 national titles won over 23 sports (10 men’s and 13 women’s), the Pacific-12 Conference is the NCAA’s most successful athletic conference. This is not up for debate. Stanford and UCLA lead the country with a whopping 118 and 116 championships (respectively) a piece. These two schools combined have more national titles than the entire ACC and Big 12. The two California schools are also one national title short of tying the total number of championships of the SEC. And for the fourth year in a row, the PAC-12 has captured 10 or more national titles in a year. Indeed, the “The Conference of Champions” moniker has never been more true. However, the conference curiously lags behind where it counts: revenue sports.

During the 2018-2019 football bowl season the Sunbelt Conference (3-2), Mountain West (3-2), and Conference USA (4-2) all outperformed the PAC-12 (3-4). Unsurprisingly, the PAC-12 finished in last place out of all of the Power 5 Conferences for the second straight year. It could have been worse, too. Oregon squeaked out an ugly 7-6 win over Michigan State and arguably the conference’s best team, Washington State, outlasted a late upset bid from the Big Ten’s third place team, Iowa State. That would have left the PAC-12 with an abysmal 1-6 record. The PAC-12 shattered the Big Ten’s previous worst conference bowl season (1-6) when they went 1-8 in 2017.

No conference in the modern era of collegiate athletics has collapsed into revenue sport irrelevance like the PAC-12. Its best football teams are not even considered dark horse contenders by the national media. Washington (the conference’s best hope of getting into the College Football Playoff in 2019) was eliminated after a week 1 loss to an 8-5 Auburn team. Another failure by a program that has developed one of the best disappearing acts in the country. Washington is 3-7 in their past 10 bowl games. Only 1 of those wins is over a Power 5 opponent (Bo Pelini’s 2009-2010 Nebraska team, yikes). The other two came against Southern Miss and BYU. If that is the best the PAC-12 has to offer, what does that say about the rest of the conference?

The state of PAC-12 basketball is somehow even worse.

This season, Washington led the way in conference play. The Huskies put together a decent ball-team that ultimately suffered the misfortune of playing UNC in the Round of 32. But, let’s not kid ourselves. They were not built to compete for a national championship. The rest of the conference was a hot mess. Oregon’s surprising late season run was typical Dana Altman magic. He remains the sole hope for the barren conference.

Most of the conference could be found hovering around the .500 mark for PAC-12 play. Arizona fell off a cliff. The Wildcats haven’t looked right since they were unceremoniously stomped by Buffalo in the NCAA tournament. The ongoing FBI investigation hasn’t helped either. Their probe into Sean Miller’s program devastated UA’s 2018 recruiting class. However, the Wildcats have a strong incoming freshman class that could help the program rebound. Expectations are high.

The conference’s other perennial power, UCLA is a question mark. The Bruins dumped their coach, Steve Alford, after the Bruins were manhandled at home by lowly Liberty. This pairing always seemed odd. Alford has never advanced beyond the Sweet Sixteen and UCLA does not even hang Sweet Sixteen banners. Hmm…Even with Lonzo Ball and four other future NBA draft picks, Alford could not win the PAC-12 or advance past the Sweet Sixteen. After a discombobulated coaching search, the Bruins welcome Mick Cronin to Westwood. The hire feels as uninspired as it looks on paper. Cronin will inherit an abundance of returning talent. It is up to him to prove his worth. Worst case is it will be more of the same underachievement UCLA fans have come to expect.

The PAC-12 sent three teams to the NCAA tournament: Arizona State (after winning a play-in game), Washington, and Oregon. Arizona State and Washington flamed out before the Sweet Sixteen. Oregon led by the magic man, Dana Altman, advanced to the Sweet Sixteen. The Ducks were defeated by Virginia in a hard fought, low scoring affair. The PAC-12 sent the fewest number of teams to the NCAA tournament out of the Power 5 conferences. The Big East and American Conference also sent three teams. The Big Ten led the Power 5 by sending eight teams to the Big Dance. The ACC dominated Selection Sunday by claiming three of the #1 seeds, one of which, would go on to win the national title.

The saddest part about all of this is the PAC-12 does, contrary to public perception, win many championships. In 2018, the PAC-12 won 12 national titles. This is more than double what the ACC or SEC won. This included wins in baseball (Oregon St.), gymnastics (UCLA), and women’s track and field (USC).

Dozens of PAC-12 athletes are crowned national champions on an annual basis. However, how many of those 12 championships did you watch in 2018? How many of those sports do you even follow? The first question is admittedly loaded. Unless you have a cable provider that carries the PAC-12 network, your ability to watch non-revenue, PAC-12 sports is severely hampered.

The second question is legitimate. Odds are, you didn’t watch any of the championships the PAC-12 won. You likely don’t even follow those sports. You probably just watch collegiate football and basketball. Culturally, those are the only two college sports that matter and they are the only ones anyone cares about. Harsh, but is there anyone that would argue with that? The strength of Power 5 conferences has always been weighted heavily on their revenue sports. However, the disparity between the PAC-12 and the other 4 major conferences has never been greater. The current downward trajectory of the PAC-12 is unprecedented. An entire Power 5 Conference has never simultaneously collapsed in both revenue sports like the PAC-12. Every other Power 5 Conference has won at least one national title in football and basketball since the PAC-12 last won theirs. The PAC-12 is barely competitive with other conferences.

Football in a Snapshot

The PAC-12’s last major football national title was in 2004 when USC went 11-0. The Trojans remained relevant until Pete Carroll left for the NFL in 2009. The departure of Carroll along with the sanctions levied down by the NCAA resulted in power shifting to the PAC-12’s North division. Chip Kelly turned Oregon into an offensive, scoring machine. However, he failed to bring home a national title to Eugene. It remains to be seen whether he can replicate that success at UCLA. Washington and Oregon have each made the college football playoff once. The PAC-12 has had the fewest number of representative teams since the start of the playoff format. Last year, the conference was an afterthought in the playoff selection process. None of its teams were considered contenders after mid-season.

PAC-12 continues to cannibalize itself in conference play. A frontrunner will emerge only to lose the next week. How many times have we seen this happen? Nine games in a conference stretching from Seattle to Tucson is brutal. Washington State (remote) and Colorado (altitude) are two of the toughest road trips in the country. The Big 12 and Big Ten are the two other conferences to feature a nine game conference schedule. The ACC and SEC only play eight conference games. The SEC also notoriously schedules FCS teams Week 12, right before rivalry week. Instead of playing Georgia the week before the Iron Bowl, Alabama plays The Citadel. Starters are typically rested for the second half of these cupcake games. UCLA, USC, and Notre Dame remain the only schools to never schedule an FCS opponent.

It would appear that playing an eight game conference schedule would be an enormous advantage. The ACC and SEC combined can claim 9 of the last 10 national titles. The PAC-12 has whined to the Playoff Selection Committee about this, to which they responded that a conference’s scheduling is not the business of the committee. This essentially legitimized scheduling as an important strategical aspect of getting into the playoffs.

The conference’s poor performance in non-conference play is as much to blame as anything for the PAC-12’s football woes. The PAC-12 has two times a year to make an impression on the college football audience as a whole: early season non-conference play and bowl season. Half of the country does not watch PAC-12 conference play simply because kickoff is too late for many east coast viewers. And PAC-12 games that are on during prime east coast viewing hours (12 PM – 10 PM) are typically less compelling than other games on at the same time. East coast fans mostly follow ACC, SEC, or Big Ten teams. The 3:30 PM EST slot Big Ten/ACC/SEC matchup will be more captivating than the 12:30 PM PST PAC-12 game. This lack of exposure is the unfortunate reality of playing in the PAC-12. It is crucial that conference performs better during non-conference contests. Improved non-conference would be a big step toward improving the PAC-12’s diminished reputation. However, would that be enough to get a team into the College Football Playoff?

The PAC-12 fights an uphill battle to getting their next football national title. To make the playoffs, a PAC-12 team will likely have to go undefeated. Last year, a one loss Washington State team never rose higher than #8 in the rankings. A shootout loss to USC on the road meant nothing to the selection committee voters. The value of the PAC-12 has never been lower. Therefore, conference losses will be weighted unfairly against teams in the PAC-12. The committee will try it’s hardest to jump a 1 loss PAC-12 team with a 1 or 2 loss SEC team. Even if that means two SEC teams making the playoffs again. They almost snuck Georgia into the #4 spot over Oklahoma this past year. This could change if the reputation of the PAC-12 improves in the near future. As it stands, the PAC-12 needs an undefeated champion to ensure another shot at the national title. And here we wait…

Ides of March

The conference’s last NCAA tournament winning team was Lute Olson’s 1996-97 Arizona Wildcats. The Wildcats returned to the national title game in 2001, where they lost to Duke. UCLA made 3 straight Final Four appearances from 2006-2008. The Bruins advanced to the national title in 2006 where they were thumped by Billy Donovan’s Florida Gators. NCAA tournament Cinderella, George Mason, had a better scoring margin against Florida in the Final Four than UCLA did in the national championship. It would take nearly a decade for another PAC-12 team to reach the Final Four. The Oregon Ducks had a surprising Final Four run in 2017. They were defeated in a close game by UNC, who would go on to win the national title.

The PAC-12 has one of the best recruiting hotbeds in the country for basketball. The greater Los Angeles area produces more elite basketball players than anywhere else in the country. The only other areas that even come close are Chicago, the greater Washington D.C. area, and NYC. UCLA and USC should be able to win 30 games a year with just the talent in their own city. However, the PAC-12 has mostly squandered their abundance of talent with weak coaching hires. Would you rather land a once in generation recruit or a once in generation coach? At the collegiate level, coaching is what separates Sweet Sixteen runs from national championships. Players will come and go, coaches endure.

The PAC-12 has no elite level coaches. Dana Altman is close to being an elite coach. He gets a lot out of his players, but doesn’t have enough hardware to put him in the elite category. Conference championships mean less when your conference is as bad as the PAC-12. Altman needs one or two more deep runs in the tournament to bump him into the elite conversation. Sean Miller is a good coach. He is an elite recruiter and has had a lot of success in the PAC-12. However, his teams fall apart in March, leaving much to be desired. The jury is still out on many of the other coaches, but the outlook is not optimistic.

Since 1985, the PAC-12 has the seventh best conference winning percentage (52%) in the NCAA tournament. This is behind two mid-major conferences, the Big East (which is a little unfair because they have only recently been reclassified as a mid-major) and the American.

Conference Administrative Woes

The commissioner of the PAC-12 is a polarizing figure. Larry Scott ushered in the PAC-10 expansion by bringing in Colorado and Utah. It could be argued that it should have been the PAC-14 (Colorado, Colorado State, Utah, and BYU). This would have made more sense for balancing purposes and kept the Holy War in conference. However, the addition of these two schools has certainly strengthened the conference. Scott was also paramount in establishing the PAC-12 Championship Game.

Since then, Scott has mostly worn out his welcome with one boneheaded decision after another. Under his leadership, the PAC-12 Network was launched in 2011. All of the other Power 5 conferences had their own network. It made sense. What didn’t make sense was Scott’s decision to refuse a broadcasting partnership with ESPN (like the Big 12, SEC, and ACC). Instead, the network bet on itself and its own brand to attract a lucrative deal with a major cable provider. Eight years later, the network is still without a broadcasting partner. The PAC-12 is the only conference that owns and operates its own television network. Talks with DirecTV have stalled and it appears unlikely the PAC-12 will ever reach an agreement with DirecTV. AT&T (the holding company of DirecTV) dropped the PAC-12 network from their U-verse provider in 2018. The SEC, Big Ten, and Longhorn networks are all carried by DirecTV. However, AT&T refused a PAC-12 network deal in order to reduce program acquisition costs. Ouch. The PAC-12 Network is currently available on: Spectrum, Cox, dish, FrontierTV, furboTV, slingTV, T-Mobile, xfinity. Two of those providers (Spectrum and FrontierTV) are widely considered to be two of the worst cable providers in the country.

Scott has also dramatically increased the PAC-12’s operating costs by moving the conference’s headquarters from Walnut Creek to San Francisco. The “Conference of Champions” now pays $7 million for rent annually. The SEC runs its operations out of a 25 year old building in the heart of Birmingham for $318,000 a year. On average, the PAC-12 also pays its member schools roughly $4 million less than other Power 5 Conferences. How can PAC-12 schools hope to maintain athletic facilities that rival those from other conferences paying their member schools much more? Recent history shows that national championships are won on National Signing Day. Elite recruits take note of the facilities a school can offer. Oh and on top of all that, Larry Scott pays himself two times as much as the Big Ten and SEC commissioners. Double the price, double the failure.

Overview

In 22 years, the PAC-12 has won two championships in football and men’s basketball. The PAC-12 is the “Sick Man of the NCAA.” The conference and its universities are content to rest on the laurels of non-revenue sports. Metaphorically fiddle while the reputation of their conference burns.

Their recent coaching hires have mostly underwhelmed. After an ugly divorce from Texas A&M, Kevin Sumlin became easily the most qualified candidate ever for the Arizona head coaching gig. Nothing quite like SEC leftovers. Chris Peterson, David Shaw, and Chip Kelly (if he ever finds his mojo) have their work cut out for them to restore the legitimacy of the PAC-12 in football. However, that will not happen overnight. Basketball remains in disarray. UCLA’s coaching search was a reality check for the storied program and the conference. The PAC-12 is little more than a pit stop for aspiring coaches on their way to premier jobs in the ACC and SEC.

Regardless, it will take years to undo the damage that has already been done. And if the PAC-12 does not right the ship, expect schools to jump the ship. There have already been murmurs of USC going Independent. PAC-12 schools make less money than the schools in other conferences. Rutgers makes more money than USC through its Big Ten membership. Let that sink in. An independent TV deal (similar to Notre Dame’s) could be a cash cow too tempting for the Trojan brass to pass up. The only benefit to saying in the PAC-12 would be for the sake of its successful non-revenue sports. However, some of USC’s Olympic sports already play in the WCC. The others would need to find a new home in another conference.

If scheduling is now an accepted strategy to getting into the playoffs, going Independent might pay dividends for those brave enough to try it. Independent schools have the luxury of complete freedom when it comes to scheduling opponents. If a school like BYU doesn’t have any trouble scheduling opponents, a marquee name like USC should have no problem. Independent schools are also exempt from playing in a conference championship game. Who knows how much longer USC will suffer the PAC-12 before they start seriously considering their options.

Not a single PAC-12 team was considered a lock for the NCAA Tournament at the end of February 2019. It was a miracle the conference got three teams in (thanks Oregon). As part of its offseason college football coverage, ESPN featured an article that listed the ten most statistically likely playoff scenarios. No teams from the PAC-12 were listed. The state of PAC-12 revenue sports is abhorrent and embarrassing. No number of non-revenue championships can fix that.