Ten Takeaways from a Crazy NBA Offseason
What an offseason! The NBA has (for a second straight summer) captivated the sports world through action off the court. Let me repeat, the NBA is dominating headlines without playing any games. I would argue that the past two free agencies have been FAR more compelling than their respective regular seasons. As of today, eight active All-Stars have switched teams since June. Of those eight, a whopping five were starters in the All-Star Game. In addition, a number of key contributors such as Al Horford, JJ Redick, Trevor Ariza, Malcolm Brogdon, and Bojan Bogdanovic have taken new contracts elsewhere. That is a monumental shift in league power. After analyzing the stampede of movement across the league, here are my top ten takeaways.
1. Los Angeles is back on the map!
For the first time ever, the Clippers and Lakers are legitimate contenders for an NBA Championship. The Clippers, once considered one of the worst franchises in American sports (40.1% franchise winning percentage on a 1610-2360 record) have built themselves into a heavyweight under the ownership of Steve Ballmer. Granted, the Clippers had a lot to be optimistic about before they landed Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Their young core took Golden State’s dynasty to six games in the playoffs. Things were finally looking up, for the beleaguered franchise. Now things are REALLY looking up. LAC managed to keep most of their core players (only losing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Danilo Gallinari) while adding two of the best two-way players in the NBA. They took out a second mortgage on their future to get here (traded OKC first round picks in 2022, 2024, 2026, two first round picks from Miami in 2021 and 2023, and the right to swap first-rounders in 2023 and 2025), but its worthy every pick if it leads to the Clippers clinching their first NBA title. The Clippers are in win-now mode and won’t waste any time proving they are competitors.
On the other side of the Staples Center, the Lakers have assembled an impressive team of their own. While signing Kawhi would have ensured another Finals appearance for the Lakers, the team already has plenty of firepower between LeBron James and Anthony Davis alone. In addition, the signings of Danny Green, Jared Dudley, and Quinn Cook offer the Lakers a seasoned core of veterans that can provide consistent three-point shooting — a facet of offense the Lakers sorely lacked last season. This should complement nicely with LeBron and AD’s interior dominance.
It appears to be destiny that these two LA teams square off in next year’s playoffs en route to an NBA championship.
2. Is this the greatest league parity the NBA has ever seen?
When was the last time there were this many legitimate contenders for an NBA championship? The Lakers, Clippers, Warriors, Nuggets, Rockets, Jazz, 76ers and Bucks could all realistically make a case for their championship competitor status, while the Trailblazers, Celtics, Kings, Mavericks, Pacers, and Pelicans could have better seasons than anticipated. The NBA is more fun when the season’s outcome doesn’t feel predetermined from the start.
3. Are the Warriors finished?
Not. A. Chance. The Warriors will lose their most-valuable player in Kevin Durant, but this is still the Warriors we are talking about. It is weird to think that the reigning dynasty has something to prove after appearing in five consecutive Finals and winning three of them. The Warriors will look vulnerable early in the season and the media will claim Golden State is finished. Then the Warriors will heat up towards the end of the regular season. We’ve seen this before with another professional sports dynasty (Tom Brady can’t possibly win another Super Bowl!).
Stephen Curry is undoubtedly great, but this season will test him. How far can Steph take his team with Klay on the mend and Durant in New York? How great is #30?
4. Et tu, Toronto?
What a wild ride for the Toronto Raptors. From the height of bliss to a despondent descent into the familiar realm of irrelevancy. I imagine most of their fans would claim it was all worth it, but it sure doesn’t feel that way now. The Raptors face a series of difficult decisions regarding their aging personnel (Gasol, Lowry, Ibaka). At this point, a rebuild feels inevitable. What Toronto will do with rising star Pascal Siakam and the much improved Fred VanVleet is anybody’s guess. I imagine they are on the market for the right price. The Raptors will make the playoffs next season in a weak Eastern Conference, but that’s a low bar for the reigning champs.
5. Are the Thunder and Pelicans the future of the NBA?
The Thunder and Pelicans made out like bandits with the war chest of assets they were able to acquire during free agency. Oklahoma City now has FIFTEEN first round picks from 2020-2026 and New Orleans has a mix of young talent and draft picks. The Pelicans and the Thunder have the draft capital to potentially build themselves into Western Conference powerhouses. “Potentially” is the key word. The draft is crapshoot. Some draft classes have a profusion of elite talent, other drafts have none. Both teams have the picks/talent to make it work, they just need luck to be on their side as well.
6. Why did the Bucks let Brogdon walk/ What are the Pacers doing?
The Bucks let their third best scoring option and their second best two-way player walk away in free agency to a team in their own conference. Brogdon is a player that has made significant improvements to his game every year he has been in the league. Last season, the Virginia product averaged 15.6 points per game on 50.5% shooting from the field and 42.6% from behind the arc. Brogdon played a crucial role on a team that made the Eastern Conference Championship. It is not insane to think that if the Bucks had beaten the Raptors then they might have gone on to win the Finals. Replacing Brogdon will be tough. I don’t believe the signings of Robin Lopez and Wesley Matthews are going to make up the difference.
On the flipside, what are those Pacers up to? Victor Oladipo’s January injury derailed their once promising season, yet despite that, the Pacers still clinched the playoffs and tied their win total from the previous year. The Pacers might be the most underrated team in basketball. Oladipo, Brogdon, Myles Turner, Domantas Sabonis, and Thaddeus Young make for a tough starting five. While the team will miss Darren Collison (retirement) and Bojan Bogdanovic (free agency), they have more than enough talent to make some noise in the Eastern Conference.
7. The Rockets Reek of Desperation
Russell Westbrook reuniting with James Harden makes for a good storyline, but will it work on the court? Westbrook and Harden appear to get along well in their personal lives, but it’s been a long time since the two have shared the court for an entire season. Since their days together in OKC, Harden has transformed himself into one of the most prolific scorers in the NBA. Feed him the ball and he will get you the buckets. Harden is considered to be an efficient high usage player. Last season, he posted the second highest usage rate in the NBA. He also averaged a dizzying 36 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 7.5 assists PER GAME. Westbrook is criticized for being an inefficient high usage player. His shot selection leaves much to be desired and his affinity for three-pointers is unfounded. #0 shot worse from the three-point line last season (29.0%) than Lonzo Ball (32.9%). Westbrook has not averaged less than four three-point attempts per game since 2012 and has a career conversion rate of 1.1 three-pointers per game. Westbrook must learn to defer to his more efficient teammate for the Rockets to succeed. It is hard to imagine the famously stubborn Russell Westbrook modifying his game to fit Mike D’Antoni’s system, but it will be fascinating to watch regardless. Houston’s struggle to remain relevant in the dog-eat-dog Western Conference may have put the organization on a train without any tracks — but train wrecks still make for great television.
8. Philly is very good, but will it be enough?
The 76ers are a very good basketball team. The dissolution of the Raptors and the meltdown of the Celtics should ensure a Philly-Milwaukee showdown in the Eastern Conference Finals. But, do either of those teams have enough to contend with the West? Milwaukee has the best player in the East, but Philly has a more talented starting five. The Sixers lost Jimmy Butler to free agency, but poached Al Horford from their conference rival. Hats off to their front office. So much of their potential hinges on the continued development of Ben Simmons and the health of Joel Embiid. If Simmons can learn to reliably shoot the basketball, he could be one of the greatest to ever play the game. However, his shot is very much a work in progress. Embiid is already a force to be reckoned with. The limitations of his body are the only thing keeping him from super-star trajectory. In a diminished East, I expect the organization to employ load managing tactics on Embiid similar to the way Toronto rested Kawhi last season.
The Sixers should be the team that emerges from the East. But, even at full strength I doubt their ability to contend with the West. Their only hope is that the West cannibalizes itself up in the post-season and whichever team that arrives in the Finals does so in a beat-up fashion.
9. Reflecting on the Thunder dynasty that never was
The departure of Russell Westbrook brings a closure to Oklahoma City’s first chapter of professional basketball. The trio of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden led the team to its first and only Finals appearance in 2012— a far-cry from where the franchise was just a few years earlier in Seattle. Seven years removed from that trip to the Finals we have more questions than answers. You can’t help but wonder “what if” when it comes to Oklahoma City. A small-market, castaway franchise that lucked into drafting three of the most dynamic players of their generation. Two of them walked away for nothing. The last, who remained unflinchingly loyal to his team, was traded for an aging, undersized point guard (who will likely be traded) and first round draft picks.
Under better management, the Thunder could have been a new rendition of the Spurs. Yet now, they have virtually nothing to show for all the talent they possessed. The organization has acquired a war chest of draft in the hopes that they will once again find their fortune in the draft. But, the odds are not in their favor. Sports are not fair.
10. Don’t count out fringe market teams, looking at you Utah and Denver
Utah and Denver have BOTH improved their rosters since last season. The Jazz signed Bogdanovic from the Pacers and traded for Mike Conley. A line-up of Bogdanovic, Conley, Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, Joe Ingles could be a king-slayer in the West. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are waiting to roll out their newest weapon in Michael Porter Jr., who missed all of last season recovering from back surgery. Porter Jr. was at one point considered to be a lock for the #1 overall pick in the NBA Draft before sliding to #14 due to health concerns. If Porter plays even close to his potential this season, he could be a valuable addition to Denver’s bench depth. The Nuggets also pulled the same trick in the 2019 draft when they selected Bol Bol #44 overall. Bol dropped from top-ten consideration to the second round after questions regarding his health emerged. The Nuggets have acquired two young players with high potential at a very cheap cost. Denver’s front office continues to surround Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray with talent capable of propelling Nuggets deep into the playoffs.
Bonus: What is Cleveland doing?
Cleveland made no moves during free agency? Really?
